Worst of job cuts are over What sectors will be hiring first?

The Staffing View

On business, the workplace and employee relations

May, 2009

The Jobs Outlook: Worst of Cuts May Be Over

The staffing industry is often considered a leading economic indicator Employers will add temporary help to their payrolls before hiring permanent employees, as business starts to improve, to maintain staffing flexibility and avoid immediately adding to their overhead 

But economic forecasting is usually cloaked with qualifiers such as “assuming that ” or “notwithstanding the ,” which help to explain what happened when predictions are off the mark For example, when the economic consensus for 2008 was a slowdown in job growth, but not a plunge off a cliff, there was a qualifier along the lines of “assuming the housing bubble doesn’t burst, a credit crisis doesn’t occur and stock prices don’t nosedive”

So far, forecasting for 2009 has been pretty easy The economy is contracting and that means companies are laying workers off rather than bringing them on Our recruiters are constantly speaking to employers in our markets to be sure we’re providing qualified workers when the demand is there That’s why maintaining contact with us is extremely important when you’re looking for work

But you can also do some hunting yourself USATodaycom features an interactive chart of the major job markets in the country, under the headline “Jobs may rebound in 2010” The chart is updated monthly using data by Moody’s Economycom It provides an overall jobs outlook for every market from Abilene, Texas to Yuma, Arizona It also offers a forecast change in jobs for 14 different sectors including construction, information, manufacturing and trade

If you live in the Boston market, for example, jobs totals are expected to fall 43 percent this year, without any positive growth until the third quarter of 2010 The big losers among industries will be manufacturing, expected to see a 67 percent decline in jobs this year compared to last year, “financial activities,” forecast to fall 61 percent, and business services, down more than 9 percent

In the Washington, DC, market, Moody’s Economycom forecasts a 18 percent drop in employment A new administration may be in town, but government employment is still projected to decline 08 percent  In Miami Moody’s Economycom expects a 55 percent drop in jobs In one of the country’s most popular vacation destinations, a jobs decline of nearly 6 percent is anticipated in the leisure and hospitality sector

The good news is that the forecasters expect the first quarter of this year to have been the worst for job loss, with the rate of decline slowing each quarter going forward

Temporary Recession, Permanent Impact on Retirement

The stock market crash has wiped out large portions of most employee and employer retirement portfolios, leaving many workers rethinking their retirement plans For some people that means staying on the job longer than they had planned, either as a temporary or a permanent employee But what are the job opportunities for senior workers? What are their advantages and disadvantages? How are they looked upon by potential or even current employers?

In “Working Longer: The Solution to the Retirement Income Challenge,” authors Steven Sass and Alicia Munnell of the Boston College Center for Retirement Research, tackle some myths and realities about staying in the workforce Reality number one, you won’t have to work forever If you work full-time until age 66, the authors say you could enjoy “a long and financially secure retirement” with an income about one-third higher than if you retire at 62 Reality number two, most older workers retire as soon as they become eligible at 62

The good news for older workers is that they often have advantages over younger workers that employers recognize Those advantages include higher productivity, better judgment, a stronger work ethic and better people skills There’s also the belief in our society that people are healthier today in their older years than in previous generations In other words, 65 is the new 55

But even with more progressive workplace views towards senior workers, a bias persists in many places According to Sass and Munnell, many employers are lukewarm toward retaining older workers due to concerns that they cost too much, lack current skills, and don’t plan to stick around long Even in companies where older workers have had a long career, the trend is against keeping them Only 44 percent of male workers age 58-62 are still working with the same employer as when they turned 50, down from 70 percent two decades ago

Among other myths the authors identified:

Myth: Phased retirement — shifting to part-time employment with a career employer — is the solution for keeping people in the workforce longer

Reality: Many firms are reluctant to offer phased retirement due to concerns over which workers would be eligible, health insurance costs, and part-time schedules

Myth: The working longer prescription is the answer for everyone

Reality: While today’s older workers are generally healthier and better educated, up to a third could be hard pressed to work into their mid-60s due to poor health or job prospects

Myth: Employers will quickly change their tune about older workers in response to labor shortages

Reality: Many employers with a high proportion of older workers are in declining industries Others can tap global labor markets

Myth: Government cannot do much to encourage longer work lives

Reality: Raising Social Security’s earliest eligibility age of 62 could push back the work/retirement divide by changing the mindset of both workers and employers

Employee Staffing In Bunches

Even companies that are very good at managing their temporary and permanent workforces can have moments when they need a large infusion of employees in a very short time In this economy, it might be a new contract that wasn’t anticipated Shifting work from one plant to another could require more employees Perhaps a concern about quality control requires an infusion of assembly line workers And even in a recession there are still hot products Apple’s iTouch and iPhone devices are still exceeding expectations

But in many cases companies are not ready to employ those additional workers, regardless of how much they need them Those firms often lack the infrastructure to overcome the biggest challenge an employer has with hiring surges – quickly training the new people

Here are some approaches to consider should your company suddenly face a challenge in managing a substantial personnel increase in a very short time:

Spread out the hiring It’s not uncommon for a company to decide it needs a large number of people, but then realize it can’t accept them all at once Instead, the new employees are brought on in stages Rather than 30 new employees at once, it might bring on two consecutive groups of 15 employees or three groups of 10 The number of workers you add in a week is dictated by the time and personnel you can commit to training

Use prescreened workers The staffing firm that you use should have a large pool of pre-qualified workers Full-service staffing firms today not only screen for technical skills, but also conduct drug, criminal and even credit checks on candidates That sort of prep work will save you time when interviewing, provide some assurance that the employees are familiar with the jobs and spots unwanted surprises that could become problems later

Bring in experienced trainers Adding senior personnel who have extensive experience in a particular industry or job discipline can save time and resources Instead of tying up an in-house manager for days while he trains the recruits, an out-sourced trainer can probably get up to speed with a walk-through to see a plant’s production flow and a briefing about how one work cell affects another This minimizes the impact on the schedules of other executives

Add a shift Adding people in a hurry to handle new business is manageable Building a new facility to accommodate them is another You may want to hire more people, but if you’re short on space you need a quick solution Many employers create a second or third shift The number of hours depends on the work to be done We’ve seen firms that extend hours until their shipping service closes for the day Others expand to meet daily deadlines

Well-run companies forecast their needs and plan accordingly, but surprises still arise When a sudden demand for employees can help your business achieve its goals, take a thoughtful approach and maximize your opportunity

How to become a jockey

It’s May and that means horse racing season Ever wonder how someone becomes a jockey? It helps to be light In honor of the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, both held this month, we offer a few steps for aspiring jockeys

• Land a job at a racetrack You’ll need a recommendation from either a trainer or an owner


• Start by "walking hots," meaning horses as they cool down, then move up to grooming


• Learn to “pony” racehorses, meaning holding the lead rope of a racehorse while riding another horse alongside This is how racehorses enter the track


• Move up to exercising racehorses You gallop the horse on the track for practice It’s not the real thing, but at least you’re finally riding the real thing


• Compete in practice races in which you learn how to come out of the gate and race


• Get your jockey's license


• Buy some breeches

 

Networking for Introverts

It’s widely agreed that networking should be a fundamental part of a job search or a career change But networking beyond a circle of friends isn’t easy for everyone It requires a person to reach out to others and share information about themselves

That’s a snap for an extrovert, but not so for the introvert Yet good networking means getting to know another person by listening in conversation and not dominating with talk about your self Introverts are often better at listening to people whom they’ve just met, asking questions and introducing themselves in an appropriate way So being an introvert isn’t an excuse to avoid networking

Two tips for the networking introvert:

• Get involved in community activities Clubs, leagues, town government are all ways to meet people and expand your circle


• When alone at a networking event, look for other people who are alone and talk to them They’ll be grateful you did